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Zhang Taichang, Wang Yunle, Xie Xiaochen

  


ENHANCING CHINA-ASEAN REGIONAL CONNECTIVITY: SYNERGISING THE MASTER PLAN ON ASEAN CONNECTIVITY (MPAC) 2025 AND THE BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE (BRI) *

  


Аннотация:
as we embark on the arduous journey to end the COVID-19, we must not lose focus on making our world a more interconnected one. It should start at the regional level before leaders can proceed to further the connectivity agenda on the global scale. Connectivity is an ever-evolving concept that is especially popular in a highly globalized world we live in today, and its contents are constantly updated and expanded. We will be exposed to the multi-dimensional nature of connectivity and are encouraged to explore beyond the scope of which is mentioned in the BRI and MPAC 2025.ASEAN is a unique blend. One has to consider the underlying social fabric, cultural diversity and varying levels of economic progress in the region. Hence, solving these problems would require extensive discussions to understand the interests of various stakeholders. Bringing the BRI into the mix offers a more dynamic problem-solving approach as more stakeholders can be tapped on and have to be considered before making a decision   

Ключевые слова:
ASEAN, China, One Belt One Road, MPAC   


УДК 32

Zhang Taichang

3rd year undergraduate School of World Politics,

Lomonosov Moscow State University

(Moscow, Russia)

 

Wang Yunle

3rd year undergraduate Faculty of Global Studies,

Lomonosov Moscow State University

(Moscow, Russia)

 

Xie Xiaochen

1st year undergraduate School of World Politics,

Lomonosov Moscow State University

(Moscow, Russia)

 

ENHANCING CHINA-ASEAN REGIONAL CONNECTIVITY:

SYNERGISING THE MASTER PLAN ON ASEAN CONNECTIVITY (MPAC)

2025 AND THE BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE (BRI)

 

Abstract: as we embark on the arduous journey to end the COVID-19, we must not lose focus on making our world a more interconnected one. It should start at the regional level before leaders can proceed to further the connectivity agenda on the global scale. Connectivity is an ever-evolving concept that is especially popular in a highly globalized world we live in today, and its contents are constantly updated and expanded. We will be exposed to the multi-dimensional nature of connectivity and are encouraged to explore beyond the scope of which is mentioned in the BRI and MPAC 2025.ASEAN is a unique blend. One has to consider the underlying social fabric, cultural diversity and varying levels of economic progress in the region. Hence, solving these problems would require extensive discussions to understand the interests of various stakeholders. Bringing the BRI into the mix offers a more dynamic problem-solving approach as more stakeholders can be tapped on and have to be considered before making a decision.

 

Keywords: ASEAN, China, One Belt One Road, MPAC.

 

List of Acronyms & Abbreviations: ADB (Asian Development Bank), APG (ASEAN Power Grid), ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations), AMS (ASEAN Member States), BRI (Belt and Road Initiative), IEA (International Energy Agency), ICT (Information and Communication Technology), MPAC (Master Plan on ASEAN Connectivity).

 

KEY TERMS

 

1.1.          Connectivity

 

Connectivity is a multi-faceted concept in policymaking, that has far-reaching effects on a region or country’s economy, society and politics. At its core, connectivity relies on the strength and breadth of the network of systems or entities 1 (World Bank Group, 2019), fundamentally increasing the interconnectedness of a country or region. In an unprecedented wave of deglobalization and populism, connectivity seems to be the answer to reverse these trends before they manifest into something more malicious. Isolationist rhetoric and protectionism are popular policy inclinations among politicians as populations around the world grow increasingly nationalistic. But this does not mark the end of globalization, it is simply a blip that ought to be corrected.

Intensification of trade, production and people yield many benefits. Studies suggest that the main drivers of regional economic successes have been international trade, foreign direct investment and the establishment of global and regional production networks and global value chains (Weiss, 2019). The key benefits can be seen in the ways increased connectivity bolsters economic growth through greater economic integration, improved supply chain efficiency and advancements in transportation and communications technologies (World Bank Group, 2019), as well as cultural benefits that foster stability within the country and across the region.

An often-overlooked benefit of connectivity is its ability to ensure the coherence of policies in the region. Connectivity can be harnessed for the collective good, galvanizing ASEAN Member States (AMS) to actively look for sustainable solutions, eventually working towards shared sustainable development goals. For example, member states can opt for renewable energy sources to fuel development needs, and its usage is encouraged as more member states choose more sustainable options if energy ties and sharing deepen.

Connectivity is a multi-layer concept that requires a coordination of various strategies and polices across domains to fully reap its benefits. We have identified some domains that we think are relevant to the conference.

 

1.1.1.       Energy Connectivity

 

Demand for energy in Southeast Asia has increased drastically in the last two decades, with an increase of 80% in overall energy demand from 2000 (IEA, 2019). The IEA estimates that the trend will continue as demand grows by 60% by 2040 (IEA, 2019). Underpinning this rise in demand is the increase in fossil fuel consumption, which has led to severe air pollution and the public health ills that ensue.

 

 

1 Entities refer to person, firm, city, country.

 

Herein lies the motivation for energy connectivity in ASEAN. Energy connectivity is a way to better plan energy resources, augment energy pooling and propel nations to embark on fuel source diversification to pave the way for sustainable development. An important aspect of energy connectivity in ASEAN is to transform the energy systems into a more environmentally- friendly one, as climate change forces all member states to make the inevitable shift to renewables.

There remains a lot of scope for ASEAN to go green; renewable energy only accounts for 15% of the region’s demand (IEA, 2019). Falling cost in renewables and increasing innovation in energy efficiency technologies make it possible for the region to not only cut its demand, but also to make energy systems more environmentally reasonable. Lower emissions are possible with the advent of ultra-high-voltage direct current transmission and “smart” grid management (UNESCAP, 2019), alleviating the goal of its financial and technological restraints to a considerable extent. The dichotomy between economic development and sustainability is less prominent as these technologies and cost savings are shared among AMS, thereby improving the economies of scale for new renewable energy supplies, which is an eventual result of increased energy connectivity in the region.

At the heart of energy connectivity in ASEAN is the ASEAN Power Grid (APG), that employs a whole-of-ASEAN energy strategy. The aim is to facilitate cross-border electricity trade, as well as by meeting demand efficiently and reducing costs of multilateral power trading (The ASEAN Post, 2018). By collecting the power generated in the region and enforcing a shift in the way energy is generated, the common energy market APG makes it possible for governments to cooperate on energy issues and meet dire energy needs, while prompting governments to adhere to ASEAN guidelines. Once the political constraints are overcome, power grid connectivity can become more reliable in delivering the region’s future power needs and address the “energy trilemma” of affordability and access, energy security and environmental sustainability (Austin, 2016).

 

1.1.2.       Institutional Connectivity

 

In a rules based world that nations have to operate in, there are many institutional obstacles that countries have to overcome for multilateral partnership or cooperation efforts to be made possible. The essence of institutional connectivity involves building synergy between the different systems of AMS through the establishment and harmonisation of legal and institutional mechanisms, regional and international agreements and protocols (ASEAN, 2010). This helps to facilitate the international transactions of goods and services as well as movement of labour in the region.

Seamless movement of goods and services is achieved by augmenting transport facilitation that links the various transport systems in the region. Land, maritime and air transport facilitation initiatives are institutionalised to create an efficient and harmonised regional transport system.

 

These include:

 

  1. ASEAN Framework Agreement on the Facilitation of Goods in Transit (AFAFGIT);
  2. ASEAN Framework Agreement on Multimodal Transport (AFAMT);
  3. ASEAN Framework Agreement on the Facilitation of Inter-State Transport (AFAFIST)

 

Essentially, institutional connectivity is about establishing cooperation frameworks and mechanisms to harmonise the different systems and policies across ASEAN countries. For example, in the case of transport systems, institutional connectivity is enhanced by establishing a nexus for transport systems to ensure smooth delivery of goods and services between economies, thereby lowering trade barriers caused by institutional or procedural inefficiency and effectively enabling a freer market in the region. However, the limitation of institutional connectivity is that it relies on the actual implementation of the strategies designed by the regional committees, without which the intended effect cannot be actualised. Additionally, transport systems in each nation need to reach a certain level of maturity and reliability before the benefits from augmenting institutional connectivity can be fully reaped. Investment in other forms of connectivity, such as digital connectivity, is crucial as well, to ensure the economies are in sync (i.e. using up-to-date and interoperable software).

 

1.1.3.       Digital Connectivity

 

Digital Connectivity refers to Information and Communications Technology (ICT) connectivity. The ICT sector is crucial in augmenting connectivity. It serves as the technical foundation for the different aspects of connectivity, allowing for better communication between entities as well as facilitating cross-border technological transfer. The private sector is also an important cog in bridging the digital divide in ASEAN, paving way for greater digital connectivity.

The ASEAN digital market holds immense growth potential. The addition of 40 million new internet users in 2020 (Google & Temasek, 2020) is an encouraging sign of growth in a region that has a relatively young population with the potential to be highly technologically savvy. Beyond communication, the Internet is a convenient means to promote consumption within the region. E-commerce is an especially dynamic sector in the region, with the proliferation of digital services such as food delivery, ride-hailing. The Southeast Asian digital market was valued at US$100 billion in 2019 (Google & Temasek, 2019).

However, huge gaps in internet access exist in AMS. Internet penetration ranges from 26% in Lao PDR to 95% in Brunei (World Bank, 2019), and such gaps in internet connectivity undermine the potential of ASEAN digital economy. As such, enhancing digital connectivity lays the groundwork for a robust digital economy and the rising e-commerce market. ICT infrastructure such as broadband services, up-to-date operating systems, fiber networks, and other new ICT technologies, are essential to close these gaps and promote digitalization, eventually realizing the projection of the Southeast Asian internet economy being valued at US$300 billion by 2025 (Google & Temasek, 2019).

Digitalizing the region also requires regional data sharing, which refers to the free flow of information and supported by the building of required ICT infrastructure. Not only will data sharing enhance the operations of the different sectors across the economy, but new economic opportunities such as digital payments and new financial services are now possible. Better governance is also a result of a more digitally connected ASEAN. Data gathered by private sector, coupled with the data from public services, can be used to make more informed decisions based on statistics and science, thereby improving delivery of public services, which invariably cause positive spill-over effects on the economy.

 

1.1.4.       Physical Connectivity

 

Physical infrastructure is also required to overcome the geographical and technological obstacles to economic progress in the region. Physical connectivity encompasses transport infrastructure such as ports, trains, air transport, ICT technologies and energy infrastructure to deliver associated services and utilities (ASEAN, 2010). In essence, it focuses on the provision of infrastructure necessary for the success of the other forms of connectivity. Infrastructure is the building block of a country’s economic progress, projects to improve existing infrastructure and build new ones are constantly sanctioned to support physical connectivity. For example, in the ASEAN region, a collective effort is spearheaded to produce 2 flagship transport infrastructure projects, the ASEAN Highway Network (AHN) and the Singapore-Kunming Rail Link (SKRL). These project build a strong foundation for various initiatives in other domains of connectivity.

The lack of funding and insufficient spending further exacerbates the problem as the infrastructure gap problem 2 threatens to stall regional development. According to Asian Development Bank (ADB), by 2030, Southeast Asia requires a projected infrastructure investment of US$5.47 trillion, which amounts to 7.6% of the region’s GDP (ADB, 2017). However, governmental spending in the region is nowhere near the level required.

 

1.1.5.       People-to-People Connectivity

 

Cultural diversity is as much a challenge for ASEAN as it is an opportunity; differences in beliefs, practices and religions that arise from it threaten to destabilise the region. Reconciling these differences requires not only an educational approach, but also social policies and economic policies to strengthen the social fabric, while preserving the unique culture heritages for future generations. Socio-cultural progress needs to take place in tandem with economic progress to instil resilience in the society and prevent an outburst of any underlying tensions.

 

2 An infrastructure gap is the difference between the required infrastructure investment and actual infrastructure spending.

 

People-to-People connectivity is aimed at strengthening the social fabric of a region that is home to many different ethnicities, cultures and religions. Through the promotion of cross- border and domestic organic interactions between nationalities and cultures, ASEAN can cultivate a community that lives in harmony with a shared purpose of prosperity and peace for the region.

Social mobility is also a core tenet of people-to-people connectivity. Master Plan on ASEAN Connectivity (MPAC 2025) has identified 4 key project areas to focus on, namely ASEAN Virtual Learning Resource Centers (AVLRC), increasing educational opportunities, visa exemptions and tourism and people mobility. As a regional organization, multilateral arrangements and agreements can be put in place to improve labor mobility and educational opportunities. Mutual Recognition Arrangements (MRA) are continuously negotiated and implemented to facilitate the movement of skilled labor within the region, to liberate the labor market, and to help workers seek better economic opportunities. Education is also an important social leveller. The emphasis on developing educational opportunities and mobility in the region include initiatives undertaken by ASEAN through the implementation of The ASEAN University Network (AUN), AUN Actual Quality Assessment (AQA) and ASEAN Credit Transfer System (ACTS) (ASEAN Secretariat, 2016).

 

1.2.              Sustainable Development

 

According to the 1987 Brundtland Commission Report, sustainable development is defined as the “development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.” (Brundtland Commission, 1987) It centres around balancing economic, environmental and societal needs of both the present and future, while ensuring that resources are equitably shared between various groups in society. When implementing the various projects and initiatives under MPAC 2025 and the Belt and Road Initiative, policymakers and leaders need to adopt the guiding principles of sustainable development. Leaders ought to engage in long-term planning when using of public funds. Leaders will also have to assess and mitigate any possible environmental devastation in their planning and instead of simply adopting a more a reactionary approach in policymaking when the environmental damage has already been inflicted. The objectives laid out in MPAC are to a large extent aligned with the with the 2030 Agenda or Sustainable Development Goals (SGDs):

 

  1. Energy Connectivity – SDG 7: Affordable and Clean Energy
  2. Digital Connectivity – SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth; SDG 10: Reduced Inequalities
  3. Institutional Connectivity – SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities; SDG 17:

Partnership for the Goals

  1. Physical Connectivity – SDG 8; SDG 10; SDG 9: Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure
  2. People-to-People Connectivity – SDG 10; SDG 11

 

2.          Past and Present Cooperation Efforts

 

2.1.              ASEAN-China Joint Statement on Synergising MPAC 2025 and BRI

 

In 2019, the People’s Republic of China and ASEAN announced a Joint Statement aimed at synergising the initiatives under MPAC 2025 and BRI. Connectivity is one of the core tents of both the MPAC 2025 and BRI. It is in the interest of China to enhance connectivity in the Southeast Asian region to strengthen the groundwork required for the success of BRI, which also complements many of the goals and objectives under the MPAC 2025. The MPAC 2025 focuses on five strategic areas, namely sustainable infrastructure, digital innovation, seamless logistics, regulatory excellence and people mobility, while the five major cooperation priorities of the BRI are policy coordination, connectivity of infrastructure, unimpeded trade, financial integration and closer people-to-people ties (ASEAN, 2019). The overlapping objectives are the areas of cooperation both parties can focus on. The BRI seeks out “economically viable connectivity-related infrastructure projects in ASEAN member states” (ASEAN, 2019), in a bid to strengthen economic corridors which form the cornerstones of BRI. Capital from financial institutions such as AIIB, ADB, World Bank Group as well as funds such as the Silk Fund Road can be effectively tapped on to support the various projects identified by the Initial Rolling Priority Pipeline of ASEAN Infrastructure Projects under MPAC 2025.

Initiatives to improve People-to-People Connectivity and Institutional Connectivity are also included in the Joint Statement. In addition to deepening cooperation in areas of academia, tourism and human resource development, a joint scholarship programme was introduced. The ASEAN-China Young Leaders Scholarship (ACYLS) was developed to promote cultural education and improving social mobility through education in the region.

 

2.2.              Master Plan on ASEAN Connectivity 2025

 

MPAC 2025 is a sequel to MPAC 2010, that ensures continuity of the region’s strategic objective of improving connectivity to “achieve a seamlessly and comprehensively connected and integrated ASEAN” (ASEAN Secretariat, 2016). Through which, the values of inclusivity and a stronger ASEAN identity are forged. To fulfil this vision, MPAC 2025 re-evaluated its goals, and detailed the means to achieve the following targets:

 

  1. Sustainable Infrastructure
  2. Digital Innovation
  3. Seamless Logistics
  4. Regulatory Excellence
  5. People Mobility

 

It is important to understand the differences between MPAC 2025 and MPAC 2010. The agenda of MPAC 2010 was to establish connections between existing programs that were relevant to ASEAN Connectivity. MPAC 2025 is designed to categorize these programs and projects into objectives for regional development, as well as to push forth new initiatives and flagship projects to synergize other ASEAN plans3 that have a stake in connectivity, allowing for a more concerted (or whole-of-ASEAN) effort to enhance regional connectivity.

 

MPAC 2025 consists of three main dimensions of connectivity: physical, institutional and people-to-people connectivity. Some of the projects and initiatives include:

 

Aspect of Connectivity

Projects/Initiatives

 

 

 

Physical

1.         ASEAN Highway Network

2.         Singapore-Kunming Rail Link

3.         ASEAN Roll-on/Roll-off (RoRo) Shipping Network and Short-sea Shipping

4.         ASEAN Power Grid

5.         Trans-ASEAN Gas Pipeline

6.         ASEAN Broadband Corridor

 

 

 

 

 

Institutional

1.         ASEAN Framework Agreement on the Facilitation of Goods in Transit

2.         ASEAN Framework Agreement on the Facilitation of Inter-State Transport

3.         ASEAN Framework Agreement on Multimodal Transport

4.         ASEAN Single Aviation Market

5.         Implementation Framework of the ASEAN Single Shipping Market

6.         ASEAN Solutions for Investments, Services and Trade

7.         ASEAN Trade Repository

 

 

 

People-to-People

1.         ASEAN Curriculum Sourcebook

2.         ASEAN Virtual Learning Resource Centre

3.         ASEAN University Network

4.         Credit Transfer Schemes

5.         Development of Tourism products (heritage sites, medical etc.)

6.         Standardised Procedure for Visa Issuance

 

Figure 1: Progress on ASEAN Connectivity (ASEAN Secretariat, 2016)

 

 

3 Namely ASEAN Community Blueprints 2025ASEAN sectoral work plans, and the Initiative for ASEAN Integration (IAI) Work Plan III

 

2.3.              Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (RCEP)

 

The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) Agreement was aimed at broadening and deepening ASEAN’s engagement with Australia, China, Japan, Korea and New Zealand. The RCEP Agreement aims to expand of regional trade and investment, eventually increasing market and employment opportunities. Additionally, RCEP “has the added value of bringing together a single rulebook” (ASEAN, 2020), supporting the development of an open, inclusive, and rules-based multilateral trading system. The RCEP is a comprehensive agreement that involves areas such as trade in goods, trade in services, investment, temporary movement of natural persons, rules of origin, customs procedures and trade facilitation, trade remedies, intellectual property, competition, government procurement, and institutional provisions (ASEAN, 2020).

MPAC 2025 and BRI can build on the frameworks established under the RCEP. ASEAN can work towards identifying areas not already covered by the existing RCEP and develop initiatives to address those areas. This would limit the effects of procedural inefficiency that may arise from the overlapping agreements implemented under different projects, improving ASEAN's institutional capability. Additionally, joining existing agreements or chapters is in the interest of avoiding the noodle bowl effect4, thereby optimizing economic efficiency (Jong, 2015).

 

2.4.              ASEAN Plan of Action for Energy Cooperation (APAEC)

 

The APAEC is the blueprint for energy cooperation in the region, and is key to ensuring a sustainable source of energy to meet ASEAN nations’ rising demand. APAEC guides policymaking in these nations to enhance multilateral energy cooperation, creating policy frameworks and implementation modalities to serve its purpose.

 

Programme Areas

Strategy

ASEAN Power Grid

To initiate multilateral electricity trade in at least one sub-region by 2018

 

An integrated energy system is cost-saving, minimise investments required for power generation capacity if energy stored can be efficiently and effectively transmitted across borders.

 

 

4 The Noodle Bowl Effect is a challenge that stems from being a participant in multiple Free Trade Agreements (FTAs), which have different rules of origins and technical standards. As a result, overlapping and sometimes conflicting rules and regulations under different FTAs can add significant compliance costs for businesses on top of the regular fees, compensation and direct compliance costs outlined in the FTAs.

 

 

Trans ASEAN Gas Pipeline

To enhance connectivity for energy security and accessibility via pipelines and regasification terminals.

Coal and Clean Coal Technology

To enhance the image of coal through promotion of clean coal technologies (CCT).

Energy Efficiency & Conservation

To reduce energy intensity by 20% in 2020 based on 2005 level, tackling the problem of limited global

reserve of fossil fuels and volatile energy prices.

Renewable Energy

Aspirational target to increase the component of renewable energy to 23% by 2025 in ASEAN energy Mix.

Regional Energy Policy &

Planning

To better profile the energy sector internationally.

Civilian Nuclear Energy

To build capabilities in policy, technology and regulatory aspects of nuclear energy.

 

Figure 2: APAEC 7 Programme Areas (ASEAN Centre for Energy, 2015)

 

2.5.              Efforts to Improve People-to-People Connectivity

 

2.5.1.       China-ASEAN Education Cooperation Week (CAECW)

 

Education is central to social mobility. The aim of CAECW is to expand education and cultural exchanges with ideas that may improve pedagogy, promote the equality of educational opportunity. CAECW serves as a platform for leaders of ASEAN and China to share the latest developments and pedagogy in the education system of their nations. During CAECW, seminars, workshops, cultural festivals are conducted in the celebration of the unique cultural diversity in ASEAN. Education agreements and cooperation memorandums are also signed to deepen ties and institutionalize good practices that improves education systems in member states.

 

2.6.              ASEAN Digital Master Plan (ADM) 2025

 

Under the ADM 2025, ASEAN leaders envision for: “ASEAN as a leading digital community and economic bloc, powered by secure and transformative digital services, technologies and ecosystem” (ASEAN Secretariat, 2021). In addition to initiatives to improve ASEAN nations’ technical capabilities, social measures are also implemented to bridge the digital gap between the rural areas and the cities, as well as adequate deregulation to lower barriers of entry to the market.

 

Outlined in the ADM 2025 are 8 desired outcomes (ASEAN Secretariat, 2021):

  1. Actions of ADM 2025 prioritized to speed ASEAN's recovery from COVID-19
  2. Increase in the quality and coverage of fixed and mobile broadband infrastructure
  3. The delivery of trusted digital services and the prevention of consumer harm
  4. A sustainable competitive market for the supply of digital services
  5. Increase in the quality and use of e-government services
  6. Digital services to connect business and to facilitate cross-border trade
  7. Increased capability for business and people to participate in the digital economy
  8. A digitally inclusive society in ASEAN

 

Most of the above initiatives relate to the building of high-quality infrastructure, upskilling of workforce, and improving digital literacy, accessibility and affordability in the region. ASEAN can take a step further to is to promote greater consumption of digital services by encouraging greater consumer protection to prevent any misuse of personal data, frauds or misinformation. For example, Personal Data Protection policy is implemented to ensure consumers to protect against corporates that exploit institutional loopholes and consumers for profits.

 

2.7.              Rolling Priority Pipeline List of Potential ASEAN

Infrastructure Projects and Sources of Funds

 

One of the key components to the ASEAN connectivity agenda is funding, which may come from either private or public funds. However, lackluster investment contributes to the widening infrastructure gap in ASEAN. Given the scale of infrastructure needs across ASEAN, high level of investment from both the public and private sectors is required for MPAC 2025 to succeed. Inadequate investment can be attributed to fiscal constraints and competing demands for resources. Funds may also be spread thin due to the high number of infrastructure projects and potential ones that are still in the planning, with Baker McKenzie and Silk Road Associates identifying the existence of more than 850 infrastructure projects in ASEAN (Baker McKenzie, 2019). Hence, through the establishment of a pipeline of well-structured and economically viable physical infrastructure projects, ASEAN can better attract public and private sector investments. Infrastructure projects will have to undergo screening before they are inducted into the Priority Pipeline. Once these projects meet the criteria and are deemed to have a significant regional impact, a feasibility study will be conducted “to understand the opportunity for financing, including private sector participation” (ASEAN Secretariat, 2017). As a result, the pipeline of projects gains legitimacy and is able to serve as a one-stop service for private capital to select which projects are worthwhile.

The World Bank champions a Maximizing Finance for Development (MFD) (The World Bank) approach that the pipeline can opt to adopt in the way they organize and prioritize projects for private and public capital. Projects capable of attracting private financing through the generation of appropriate returns should be brought to the market, thereby reserving limited public funds for projects that are economically viable but less financially attractive (ASEAN & The World Bank, 2018).

 

3.          Existing Challenges

 

3.1.              Financing Bottleneck and Debt Sustainability

 

Large-scale infrastructure construction has resulted in large debts in some countries. This is likely due to various reasons, such as ineffective use of funds, corruption, and poor project implementation. When government borrowing is not accompanied by enough economic growth and revenue generation to fully service the debt, it can generate a downward spiral that inevitably ends in the need for debt restructuring or reduction. Doubts about a country’s ability to service its debt as debt ratios worsen can increase the cost of capital as investors demand a higher return to compensate for increased risk, creating a self-fulfilling debt prophecy. A sovereign default can lead to a banking crisis, as banks have to make write-downs on credits provided to the state; an economic crisis, as aggregate demand falls; and a currency crisis due to a sudden stop in foreign capital. While the BRI provides the region with a vast opportunities to develop its infrastructure, ASEAN countries need to ensure that projects are economically sustainable and avoid the issue of over-construction.

 

3.2.              Inadequate Engagement of Stakeholders

 

Stakeholder engagement is crucial when implementing projects under the MPAC 2025 and BRI. Stakeholders refer to a diverse group of people involved in a project, such as the financing institutions, the national government, local governments, businesses undertaking the project and local citizens affected by the projects. The lack of stakeholder engagement has sometimes led to delays in project implementation due to reasons such as resistance from the local people. When stakeholders are not adequately consulted, the impact of a project on the people are not thoroughly understood. This can often lead to local resistance towards the project, particularly when compensation is not adequately provided.

 

3.3.              Weak Legal Systems

 

Strong legal and regulatory frameworks are essential to preventing the misuse of funds and ensuring that projects are economically and environmentally sustainable. As the national government plays the dual role of the commercial actor (undertaking the project) and also the regulator (overseeing the project implementation), there may be conflicting interests such as a bias towards large infrastructure projects that need to be economically and environmentally significant. In some ASEAN countries, local governments were unable to explain the implementation of the project, which triggered a negative reaction from the local people. For example, in Indonesia, the Jakarta-Bandung railway project, which was mainly funded by China Development Bank, was postponed due to the slow land acquisition process as the local people demanded that project developers increase the amount of compensation for their land (Indonesia Investment, 2017).

 

4.          Possible Solutions

 

4.1.              Sustainable Financing

 

ASEAN countries should work towards increasing not only the total amount of financing but also the diversity of funding sources to obtain investments. This includes making use of multiple funding sources such as the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, Asian Development Bank, New Development Bank and Silk Road Fund. Third-party private sources or non-Chinese sources should also be further explored. The opening and development of a regional bond market will help promote the use of regional savings for investments that are sustainable in the long run. The implementation of MPAC 2025 and the BRI requires the injection of a large amount of capital to support the financing needs. It is difficult to rely on only one or a few sources of financial investment. A regional bond market can help to provide a sustainable alternative. Rather than relying solely on public lending, private lending can help to open up new investment opportunities for ASEAN countries.

Therefore, a more robust financing and regulatory system should be developed to incentivize private investment in the region. This involves creating a regulatory system that is able to work across borders, provide transparency, and put in place a balanced approach to address gaps between public and private lending. ASEAN countries should also be appropriately credit-rated to provide private investors with a clearer understanding of the risk and returns from such investments.

 

4.2.              Increasing Engagement with Various Stakeholders

 

China and ASEAN can establish a regular summit or forum with the participation of stakeholders as a form of consultation mechanism with non-state stakeholders (such as small and medium-sized enterprises, investors, businessmen, international institutions and government officials), so as to involve business associations and civil society groups. This can be supplemented by the establishment of a China-ASEAN public-private partnership center, so as to facilitate the convening and pooling of the agenda of the public-private partners and promote mutual investment between China and ASEAN. The ASEAN Coordination Committee for Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (ACCMSME) can also be transformed into the China-ASEAN Coordination Committee for Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises, and the “Belt and Road Initiative” can also be included in the “China-ASEAN SME Development Strategy Action Plan (2016-2025)”.

 

4.3.              Strengthening the Legal System

 

The legal rights of the people impacted by projects under the MPAC 2025 and BRI should also be clearly defined and protected. Project agreements should clearly state how much government is relinquishing its traditional responsibility (protecting the environment and the rights of its citizens) to the population. Legal systems within ASEAN countries should be

 

further strengthened to ensure that the local people have the access to seek direct litigation against the government for compensation when projects are being implemented.

 

5.          Concluding Remarks

 

Regional connectivity requires policymakers to utilise the various regional institutions and undertake a whole-of-ASEAN effort when implementing projects. Enhancing regional connectivity requires coordination across various domains and sectors, in which projects in each connectivity domain must be undertaken in tandem with one another to maximize the outcomes such projects. Tackling the aforementioned issues requires a new way of looking at how financing can be done more effectively and efficiently as well as the need for better policy coordination between governments. Connectivity is a means to an end – namely economic development and the welfare of the local people. Thus, the implementation of projects must seek to ensure that all projects fulfil these two basic goals. This can be done by ensuring that projects are financed sustainability and that the concerns of stakeholders are understood, and their legal rights protected. Through a whole-of-society, whole-of-nation and a whole-of- region approach, regional connectivity can be enhanced through the MPAC 2025 and the BRI.

 

REFERENCES:

 

ASEAN (2010). 2010 Master Plan on ASEAN Connectivity.

ASEAN. (2019). ASEAN-China Joint Statement on Synergising the Master Plan on ASEAN Connectivity (MPAC) 2025 and the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)https://asean.org/storage/2019/11/Final-ASEAN-China-Joint-Statement-Synergising- the-MPAC-2025-and-the-BRI.pdf

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Номер журнала Вестник науки №3 (48) том 3

  


Ссылка для цитирования:

Zhang Taichang, Wang Yunle, Xie Xiaochen ENHANCING CHINA-ASEAN REGIONAL CONNECTIVITY: SYNERGISING THE MASTER PLAN ON ASEAN CONNECTIVITY (MPAC) 2025 AND THE BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE (BRI) // Вестник науки №3 (48) том 3. С. 18 - 40. 2022 г. ISSN 2712-8849 // Электронный ресурс: https://www.вестник-науки.рф/article/5383 (дата обращения: 19.04.2024 г.)


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