Elinsh V.Y.
DECODING THE DYNAMICS OF HISTORY: UNRAVELING REGULARITIES, CYCLES AND THE CHALLENGES OF HISTORICAL FORECASTING *
Аннотация:
this article explores the concept of the historical process and the existing patterns within it. The author discusses various perspectives of scholars on the existence of historical cycles and emphasizes that the nature of historical development is not always sequential and coherent
Ключевые слова:
historical process, regularity, historical cycles, local peculiarities, globalization, historical-genetic approach, forecasting, recurring processes
УДК 93
Elinsh V.Y.
student of the Historical and Philological Faculty
at the Pedagogical Institute of
Belgorod State National Research University
(Belgorod, Russia)
DECODING THE DYNAMICS OF HISTORY:
UNRAVELING REGULARITIES, CYCLES AND
THE CHALLENGES OF HISTORICAL FORECASTING
Abstract: this article explores the concept of the historical process and the existing patterns within it. The author discusses various perspectives of scholars on the existence of historical cycles and emphasizes that the nature of historical development is not always sequential and coherent.
Keywords: historical process, regularity, historical cycles, local peculiarities, globalization, historical-genetic approach, forecasting, recurring processes.
The topic of historical regularity has always been of interest to scholars and continues to attract attention. Ongoing research is being conducted in this field. However, despite this, there is a group of scholars who still question the existence of historical cycles.
The concept of the historical process requires initial development. Although this concept does not have a definition in a philosophical encyclopedic dictionary, there is a definition of regularity. According to this encyclopedia, regularity is the objective connection between phenomena and stages of the historical process that determines its development. Based on this definition, the following conclusion can be drawn: history has certain regularities that determine its development, and these regularities objectively exist. However, according to Panfilova's opinion, it cannot be assumed that history always develops in a coherent and sequential manner. According to her, history consists of multiple systems that can only be connected at the theoretical level.
It should be noted that the processes of the formation of different ethnic groups and civilizations may vary. The history of different countries has significant differences determined by geographical location, which entails the specificity of their spiritual and material culture, everyday life, and religious traditions.
In history, numerous processes can be identified that are not interconnected but develop according to the same principle. Therefore, we can talk about the existence of certain regularities in historical development. However, it is worth noting that these regularities are not universal, and it is not always possible to predict subsequent events based solely on past experience. Moreover, it is necessary to take into account that the identification of regularities is possible only within a specific process, as only it possesses certain characteristics and a sequence of events. When analyzing global processes, it is also important to consider the local peculiarities of each phenomenon to make the forecast as accurate as possible. The study of world history does not imply its comprehensive coverage, but it is important to note that predicting the development of events based on global history is only possible by considering the interaction of all participants in the process.
The specificity of historical forecasting is that history studies past events and processes that have already occurred. Historians work with available sources, archival documents, artifacts and evidence of the time to create a meaningful picture of the past. However, unlike other sciences, where it is possible to conduct experiments and observe repeatable phenomena, history is unique and unrepeatable.
To illustrate, the history of Russia can be considered. Due to its unique path based on distinctive phenomena, it is difficult to predict its further development. Therefore, it is always necessary to consider the local peculiarities of the area under study. However, many regions of Russia have already undergone globalization and, consequently, are developing according to the principles of world history. Moreover, it should be noted that all regions are subject to the process of globalization to varying degrees, which complicates the identification of specific regularities in their development.
To predict the further development of processes, it is necessary to determine the geographical and chronological frameworks that limit the operation of historical cycles. The use of methodology is also an important aspect of research. For example, the historical-genetic approach allows scholars to identify historical cycles in development by using the sequence of events.
Forecasting is always a dynamic process, so regular research in this field is necessary. Despite numerous difficulties, achieving such forecasts is possible and can bring both theoretical and practical benefits. The cyclical nature of the historical process cannot be completely rejected since there are many modern theories related to regularities. Scholars hypothesize the existence of cycles that characterize the history of humanity. However, the existence of permanent identical cycles that successively replace each other has not been proven. Historians, philosophers, and sociologists recognize the existence of temporary tendencies, but only some of them are long-term.
Research in this field is an integral part of historical science and plays an important role in determining the speed of historical processes and their interconnections. However, predicting future events and the regression of civilization based solely on the cyclical theory of the historical process is a complex task. It is important to consider that research in this field requires the application of various approaches and methods, including an interdisciplinary approach and the analysis of different sources.
In conclusion, although the existence of historical cycles remains a subject of debate, research in this field continues and advances. Understanding the regularities of the historical process plays a crucial role in our quest for a deeper understanding of the past, present, and possible scenarios for the future.
REFERENCES:
Номер журнала Вестник науки №5 (62) том 2
Ссылка для цитирования:
Elinsh V.Y. DECODING THE DYNAMICS OF HISTORY: UNRAVELING REGULARITIES, CYCLES AND THE CHALLENGES OF HISTORICAL FORECASTING // Вестник науки №5 (62) том 2. С. 340 - 343. 2023 г. ISSN 2712-8849 // Электронный ресурс: https://www.вестник-науки.рф/article/8131 (дата обращения: 25.04.2024 г.)
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